Economic Factors and Stock Market Performance: Sri Lankan Context

Ediriweera Arachchige Indunil Nelunika Ediriweera; Arachchige Rohana Dissanayake

doi:doi:10.11648/j.eco.20221103.13

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Economic Factors and Stock Market Performance: Sri Lankan Context

Ediriweera Arachchige Indunil Nelunika Ediriweera, Arachchige Rohana Dissanayake

Published in Economics (Volume 11, Issue 3)

Received: 15 July 2022 Accepted: 1 August 2022 Published: 12 August 2022

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Abstract

This research aims to understand the effect of macroeconomic factors on the performance of the share market, which would attract the attention of economic policymakers in terms of enhancing investments within Sri Lanka. The study followed a positivism research philosophy and applied a deductive research approach. Thereby, the quantitative data was used to reach conclusions. The study derived two macroeconomic factors based on the key macroeconomic variables by using Principal Component Factoring: Economic Growth Factor and Time Value of Money Factor for the analysis. Based on the monthly data collected for 213 months from January 2002 to September 2019, the study developed GARCH (1,1) model to understand the time-series impact of the macroeconomic factors on the All-Share Price Index. The results of the GARCH (1,1) model revealed that the All-Share Price Index of the previous month and the time value of money factor are more deterministic when forecasting the share market performance in the forthcoming month. However, the economic growth factor showed an insignificant impact on the performance of the Colombo Stock Exchange. In conclusion, better share market performance of the previous month and time value of money factor together are significantly impacting to motivate investors in the Sri Lankan stock exchange than other macroeconomic variables (ceteris paribus).

Published in	Economics (Volume 11, Issue 3)
DOI	10.11648/j.eco.20221103.13
Page(s)	117-127
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2024. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Economic Growth Factor, GARCH (1,1), Macroeconomic Factors, Share Market Performance, Time Value of Money Factor

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Ediriweera Arachchige Indunil Nelunika Ediriweera, Arachchige Rohana Dissanayake. (2022). Economic Factors and Stock Market Performance: Sri Lankan Context. Economics, 11(3), 117-127. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.eco.20221103.13

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ACS Style

Ediriweera Arachchige Indunil Nelunika Ediriweera; Arachchige Rohana Dissanayake. Economic Factors and Stock Market Performance: Sri Lankan Context. Economics. 2022, 11(3), 117-127. doi: 10.11648/j.eco.20221103.13

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AMA Style

Ediriweera Arachchige Indunil Nelunika Ediriweera, Arachchige Rohana Dissanayake. Economic Factors and Stock Market Performance: Sri Lankan Context. Economics. 2022;11(3):117-127. doi: 10.11648/j.eco.20221103.13

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@article{10.11648/j.eco.20221103.13,
  author = {Ediriweera Arachchige Indunil Nelunika Ediriweera and Arachchige Rohana Dissanayake},
  title = {Economic Factors and Stock Market Performance: Sri Lankan Context},
  journal = {Economics},
  volume = {11},
  number = {3},
  pages = {117-127},
  doi = {10.11648/j.eco.20221103.13},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.eco.20221103.13},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.eco.20221103.13},
  abstract = {This research aims to understand the effect of macroeconomic factors on the performance of the share market, which would attract the attention of economic policymakers in terms of enhancing investments within Sri Lanka. The study followed a positivism research philosophy and applied a deductive research approach. Thereby, the quantitative data was used to reach conclusions. The study derived two macroeconomic factors based on the key macroeconomic variables by using Principal Component Factoring: Economic Growth Factor and Time Value of Money Factor for the analysis. Based on the monthly data collected for 213 months from January 2002 to September 2019, the study developed GARCH (1,1) model to understand the time-series impact of the macroeconomic factors on the All-Share Price Index. The results of the GARCH (1,1) model revealed that the All-Share Price Index of the previous month and the time value of money factor are more deterministic when forecasting the share market performance in the forthcoming month. However, the economic growth factor showed an insignificant impact on the performance of the Colombo Stock Exchange. In conclusion, better share market performance of the previous month and time value of money factor together are significantly impacting to motivate investors in the Sri Lankan stock exchange than other macroeconomic variables (ceteris paribus).},
 year = {2022}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Economic Factors and Stock Market Performance: Sri Lankan Context
AU  - Ediriweera Arachchige Indunil Nelunika Ediriweera
AU  - Arachchige Rohana Dissanayake
Y1  - 2022/08/12
PY  - 2022
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.eco.20221103.13
DO  - 10.11648/j.eco.20221103.13
T2  - Economics
JF  - Economics
JO  - Economics
SP  - 117
EP  - 127
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2376-6603
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.eco.20221103.13
AB  - This research aims to understand the effect of macroeconomic factors on the performance of the share market, which would attract the attention of economic policymakers in terms of enhancing investments within Sri Lanka. The study followed a positivism research philosophy and applied a deductive research approach. Thereby, the quantitative data was used to reach conclusions. The study derived two macroeconomic factors based on the key macroeconomic variables by using Principal Component Factoring: Economic Growth Factor and Time Value of Money Factor for the analysis. Based on the monthly data collected for 213 months from January 2002 to September 2019, the study developed GARCH (1,1) model to understand the time-series impact of the macroeconomic factors on the All-Share Price Index. The results of the GARCH (1,1) model revealed that the All-Share Price Index of the previous month and the time value of money factor are more deterministic when forecasting the share market performance in the forthcoming month. However, the economic growth factor showed an insignificant impact on the performance of the Colombo Stock Exchange. In conclusion, better share market performance of the previous month and time value of money factor together are significantly impacting to motivate investors in the Sri Lankan stock exchange than other macroeconomic variables (ceteris paribus).
VL  - 11
IS  - 3
ER  -

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Author Information

Ediriweera Arachchige Indunil Nelunika Ediriweera

Department of Accountancy, Wayamba University of Sri Lanka, Kuliyapitiya, Sri Lanka
Arachchige Rohana Dissanayake

Department of Mathematics, University of Moratuwa, Katubedda, Sri Lanka

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APA Style

Ediriweera Arachchige Indunil Nelunika Ediriweera, Arachchige Rohana Dissanayake. (2022). Economic Factors and Stock Market Performance: Sri Lankan Context. Economics, 11(3), 117-127. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.eco.20221103.13

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ACS Style

Ediriweera Arachchige Indunil Nelunika Ediriweera; Arachchige Rohana Dissanayake. Economic Factors and Stock Market Performance: Sri Lankan Context. Economics. 2022, 11(3), 117-127. doi: 10.11648/j.eco.20221103.13

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AMA Style

Ediriweera Arachchige Indunil Nelunika Ediriweera, Arachchige Rohana Dissanayake. Economic Factors and Stock Market Performance: Sri Lankan Context. Economics. 2022;11(3):117-127. doi: 10.11648/j.eco.20221103.13

Copy | Download

@article{10.11648/j.eco.20221103.13,
  author = {Ediriweera Arachchige Indunil Nelunika Ediriweera and Arachchige Rohana Dissanayake},
  title = {Economic Factors and Stock Market Performance: Sri Lankan Context},
  journal = {Economics},
  volume = {11},
  number = {3},
  pages = {117-127},
  doi = {10.11648/j.eco.20221103.13},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.eco.20221103.13},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.eco.20221103.13},
  abstract = {This research aims to understand the effect of macroeconomic factors on the performance of the share market, which would attract the attention of economic policymakers in terms of enhancing investments within Sri Lanka. The study followed a positivism research philosophy and applied a deductive research approach. Thereby, the quantitative data was used to reach conclusions. The study derived two macroeconomic factors based on the key macroeconomic variables by using Principal Component Factoring: Economic Growth Factor and Time Value of Money Factor for the analysis. Based on the monthly data collected for 213 months from January 2002 to September 2019, the study developed GARCH (1,1) model to understand the time-series impact of the macroeconomic factors on the All-Share Price Index. The results of the GARCH (1,1) model revealed that the All-Share Price Index of the previous month and the time value of money factor are more deterministic when forecasting the share market performance in the forthcoming month. However, the economic growth factor showed an insignificant impact on the performance of the Colombo Stock Exchange. In conclusion, better share market performance of the previous month and time value of money factor together are significantly impacting to motivate investors in the Sri Lankan stock exchange than other macroeconomic variables (ceteris paribus).},
 year = {2022}
}

Copy | Download

TY  - JOUR
T1  - Economic Factors and Stock Market Performance: Sri Lankan Context
AU  - Ediriweera Arachchige Indunil Nelunika Ediriweera
AU  - Arachchige Rohana Dissanayake
Y1  - 2022/08/12
PY  - 2022
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.eco.20221103.13
DO  - 10.11648/j.eco.20221103.13
T2  - Economics
JF  - Economics
JO  - Economics
SP  - 117
EP  - 127
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2376-6603
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.eco.20221103.13
AB  - This research aims to understand the effect of macroeconomic factors on the performance of the share market, which would attract the attention of economic policymakers in terms of enhancing investments within Sri Lanka. The study followed a positivism research philosophy and applied a deductive research approach. Thereby, the quantitative data was used to reach conclusions. The study derived two macroeconomic factors based on the key macroeconomic variables by using Principal Component Factoring: Economic Growth Factor and Time Value of Money Factor for the analysis. Based on the monthly data collected for 213 months from January 2002 to September 2019, the study developed GARCH (1,1) model to understand the time-series impact of the macroeconomic factors on the All-Share Price Index. The results of the GARCH (1,1) model revealed that the All-Share Price Index of the previous month and the time value of money factor are more deterministic when forecasting the share market performance in the forthcoming month. However, the economic growth factor showed an insignificant impact on the performance of the Colombo Stock Exchange. In conclusion, better share market performance of the previous month and time value of money factor together are significantly impacting to motivate investors in the Sri Lankan stock exchange than other macroeconomic variables (ceteris paribus).
VL  - 11
IS  - 3
ER  -

Copy | Download